U.S.-Iran negotiations stall + Israel and Lebanon exchange fire, market sentiment is at a standstill, don't hold too heavy positions in contracts

Good morning, everyone. Looking at the market trend, things don’t look good. Is the market about to pull back?

From the latest news, although the US and Iran are still in an extended ceasefire period, the two sides still haven’t been able to move forward on the conditions needed to open a second round of negotiations, leaving them stuck in a standstill. It’s like last week’s “either war or talks” dilemma—an “all quiet” state. Meanwhile, the fighting between Israel and Lebanon still exists, which also creates resistance to US-Iran negotiations, causing the market to follow suit and enter a wait-and-see mode. The current US-Iran situation is very unfavorable, and it’s easy for a conflict to escalate due to certain events. As a result, the short-term market trend is showing a weak pullback for a wave.

During this time, BTC institutions have continued to have net inflows. But yesterday, crypto ETF institutions had net outflows of about $310 million. If there are net outflows again, you need to be aware of the risk that the broader market will continue to pull back. This also reflects how institutions view the market’s short-term status. Therefore, it’s important to pay more attention in the coming days to whether net fund outflows appear again, and to continuously keep a close watch on the US-Iran developments. Personally, I think if the market pulls back, being in a spot-cash/no-position state and then buying in batches is a good approach.

The current broader market hasn’t dropped to the bottom yet, so for the short term, support to watch is around 75,000; resistance is around 78,500. For Ethereum, support is around 2,200; resistance to watch is around 2,350. SOL’s short-term volatile range is 82–86.

Today’s futures strategy:
BTC: 76,000, or go long on dips; take profit at 77,500
Otherwise, 78,000, or go short on rallies; take profit at 76,500

ETH: 2,250, or go long on dips; take profit at 2,300
Otherwise, 2,350, or go short on rallies; take profit at 2,260

SOL: 83, or go long on dips; take profit at 85
Otherwise, 85.5, or go short on rallies; take profit at 83

Warm reminder:
1. Stop-loss suggestions can be set based on your actual liquidation price and the amount of loss principal you can tolerate. Set it yourself as needed.
2. Don’t be greedy. Take profits when you can—better to take a small loss than to hold against the position. If the direction is correct, continue holding.
$ETH $BTC ‌ ‌$SOL ‌