I just reviewed the options data on Deribit, and tomorrow a fairly substantial volume expires: 2.1 billion in notional. What’s interesting is that most of it comes from BTC, at 1.63 billion, but sentiment has changed significantly compared to a week ago.

BTC puts now dominate, with a put/call ratio of 1.02, so the market is more bearish right now. ETH also has its share, with 445 million in options expiring, although the ratio there is more balanced at 0.94. Deribit mentions that Ethereum’s open interest has grown quite a bit in the past few days.

The curious thing is that both assets are still trading below their “maximum pain” levels according to Deribit: BTC would be at 71k and ETH at 2.25k. With BTC currently at 77.8k and ETH at 2.32k, there’s some room. Tomorrow at 8 UTC and 16:00 Beijing, ( will tell us how this plays out. It’ll be interesting to see whether there’s any last-minute movement on Deribit, or if everything unfolds without surprises.