Coinbase Quantum Advisory Board: Quantum Computing May Threaten Crypto Systems, Industry Needs to Prepare for Upgrades

On April 21, the Coinbase Quantum Computing and Blockchain Independent Advisory Board released its first position paper, systematically assessing the potential impact of quantum computing on the cryptocurrency industry. The report indicates that while current quantum computers are not yet capable of threatening mainstream blockchain systems, machines capable of compromising cryptographic security are ‘likely’ to emerge in the future, with the industry anticipating a timeframe of at least ten years, although earlier realization is not ruled out. The report emphasizes that ‘user assets are still generally safe today,’ but the real risk is primarily concentrated in the digital signature mechanisms at the wallet level, rather than the underlying structure of Bitcoin or hash functions. The board noted that approximately 6.9 million BTC may be at higher exposure risk; in contrast, Ethereum and other proof-of-stake networks face additional challenges with their validator signature mechanisms, but there is already a clear migration roadmap. The report also points out that post-quantum cryptographic solutions have been continuously developed over the past 20 years and have been standardized by organizations such as the U.S. NIST, but large-scale deployment still faces challenges related to system migration and coordination. The board calls on major public chains to formulate upgrade plans as soon as possible, including how to address key issues such as long-term un-migrated or inactive wallets, and emphasizes that the industry should begin preparations immediately rather than waiting until risks are imminent.