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#AprilMarketOutlook
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been traded in a Megafon Bullish pattern for 8 years since the December 2017 Peak of that Cycle. In this pattern, we have had two complete Cycles so far (Bear and Bull), and we are currently in the 3rd Cycle since the October 2025 Bear Cycle began. Technically, this is the new Bear Leg of the pattern.
The 2022 Bear Cycle reached a low just below the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level after completing a total correction of -77.76%. That is 6% lower than the previous Bear Cycle in 2018. Also, both Cycles touched the 1W MA350 (red trend line) right before bouncing into the uninterrupted Bull Cycle.
If this condition continues to hold this time as well, BTC should target at least $50,000, which will be a close test of the 1W MA350. If there is still time in the 4-year Cycle and it extends, it could drop as low as $39000 even, which is the 0.786 Fib and still above the potential -71.70% (-6% lower than the previous Bear Cycle).
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$BTC