Investment Outlook: March PMI Data to be Released Soon, Photovoltaic Export Tax Refund Policy Officially Cancelled

How Will the Cancellation of the Export Tax Refund for Photovoltaics Drive Industrial Upgrading?

// Market News //

1. The National Bureau of Statistics will release the March PMI data on March 31

The National Bureau of Statistics plans to announce the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for March on March 31, 2026. The previously released manufacturing PMI for February was 49.0%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points month-on-month; the non-manufacturing business activity index was 49.5%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month; the composite PMI output index was 49.5%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points. The market is generally focused on whether the March index can return to above the 50% threshold to verify the strength of economic recovery at the beginning of the 14th Five-Year Plan. With the effects of the Spring Festival fading and the resumption of enterprise operations, institutions predict that the manufacturing PMI for March is expected to show a seasonal rebound due to corrective factors.

2. The export tax refund for photovoltaics and some products will be officially canceled from April 1

According to an announcement from the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration, starting from April 1, 2026, the VAT export tax refund for certain high energy-consuming or low value-added products, such as photovoltaics, will be fully canceled. This policy aims to guide industrial transformation and upgrading, curb blind expansion of low-end capacity, and respond to changes in the international trade environment. Industry research shows that due to the countdown to the cancellation of the tax refund, a certain scale of "rush to export" phenomenon appeared in late March, and it is expected that from April onwards, the export volume and prices of related products will face structural adjustments, with the profit distribution in the industrial chain likely skewing towards leading enterprises with high technological added value.

3. China will implement agreed tariff rates on certain imported goods originating from the Republic of the Congo

The Tariff Policy Committee of the State Council recently announced that, according to relevant provisions of the Customs Law of the People's Republic of China, starting from April 1, 2026, agreed tariff rates will be implemented on certain imported goods originating from the Republic of the Congo according to the arrangement of the cooperation agreement on early harvest between the government of the People's Republic of China and the government of the Republic of the Congo. This move aims to deepen Sino-African economic and trade cooperation and promote the facilitation of bilateral trade and investment. For import enterprises involving mineral resources and primary agricultural products, the reduction in tariff costs will help further stabilize supply chains and enhance the market supply assurance capacity of related bulk commodities.

4. Geopolitical fluctuations exacerbate volatility in global risk assets

Recent institutional research reports indicate that geopolitical expectations have become a core pricing factor in the market. Affected by fluctuations in related regional situations, international oil prices have shown a central upward trend since the end of February, significantly disturbing global liquidity and inflation expectations. Wind data shows that since March, major broad-based indices have experienced volatile trends, with market volatility significantly increasing compared to February. Institutional analysis suggests that the risk aversion sentiment resulting from geopolitical risks has put pressure on growth-style segments such as A-share TMT and non-bank sectors, while areas with strong anti-inflation attributes, such as energy and precious metals, have shown strong resilience.

5. The central bank increases counter-cyclical regulation to support the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan

At a recent press conference, a relevant official from the central bank emphasized that in 2026, a moderately loose monetary policy will continue to be implemented. To effectively support the initiation of the 14th Five-Year Plan, the People's Bank plans to lower the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points in advance, including tools such as re-loans and rediscounting for supporting agriculture and small enterprises. Wind data shows that last week, open market operations primarily focused on maintaining stable liquidity during the transition period. The market expects that as new policies come into effect in early April, the financing costs for the real economy are likely to decline further, particularly boosting the willingness of private enterprises and key sectors to increase credit issuance.

// Sector Matters //

1. Semiconductor Storage: Dapu Micro's IPO draws attention to the sector

Domestic enterprise-level SSD (solid-state drive) leader Dapu Micro plans to initiate subscription this week. The company possesses full-stack self-research capabilities including "main control chip + firmware algorithm + module," with clients covering leading cloud service providers such as Google, ByteDance, and DeepSeek. Market views suggest that as the demand for high-performance storage from AI large models grows exponentially, the enterprise-level SSD market is entering a period of explosion. Additionally, some semiconductor manufacturers have released price increase notices for April, affecting storage chips and power devices, with the industry chain's prosperity expected to spread from high-end manufacturing to the midstream packaging and testing segment.

2. New Energy: Countdown to new export policy causes price fluctuations in the industry chain

Due to the impact of the export tax refund cancellation policy on April 1, the photovoltaic sector saw a significant increase in trading activity last week. The policy change will directly lead to an approximate 13% increase in export costs, causing price negotiations across various segments of the industry chain. In the short term, the acceleration of overseas order execution provides support for the component segment; in the long term, the policy will force companies to increase research and development investment and enhance the pricing ability of high-efficiency products like N-type batteries. Meanwhile, related supporting components such as inverters and brackets will also face adjustments in foreign trade strategies, with market focus shifting towards the alternative demand for domestic distributed photovoltaic construction.

3. Air Transportation: Fuel surcharges on domestic routes to be increased

Spring Airlines and other carriers announced that starting from April 5, 2026, fuel surcharges on domestic route tickets will be increased. This adjustment is primarily influenced by the recent sustained rise in international oil prices. Wind data statistics show that with the recovery of cross-season tourism demand and geopolitical risks pushing up jet fuel costs, airlines are raising surcharges to relieve cost pressure. Industry insiders generally believe that major airlines such as Air China and China Southern Airlines are likely to follow suit, reflecting how the civil aviation industry is maintaining profitability stability through pricing mechanisms against a backdrop of rising costs.

4. Nonferrous Metals: Expansion of application areas for metal composite materials

Yuyuan Composite Materials will begin subscription this week, with products involved in aerospace and military electronics special alloys. Recently, driven by high-end equipment manufacturing demand, the prosperity of niche fields such as metal matrix composites has recovered. As major projects of the 14th Five-Year Plan begin to launch, the demand for high-strength, lightweight materials is entering a period of intensive release.

5. Energy Cycle: Geopolitical spillover effects push up oil and gas valuations

Last week, the energy sector exhibited strong anti-drawdown characteristics. Affected by fluctuations in international supply expectations, the oil and natural gas extraction sectors have drawn funds' favor. Wind data shows that rising oil prices not only boost the direct gross profit of extraction enterprises but also activate the valuation recovery of downstream segments like oil services and refining. Institutional strategies point out that in the current context of normalized geopolitical competition, the narrative of energy security has become an important axis in the capital market, with leading state-owned enterprises possessing resource endowment advantages experiencing value re-evaluation.

// Major Stock Events //

1. China National Petroleum: 2025 net profit down 4.5% year-on-year, plans to distribute cash dividends of 0.25 yuan per share

China National Petroleum announced that the company achieved an operating income of 2.86 trillion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 2.5%; the net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was 157.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.5%. The company plans to distribute cash dividends of 0.25 yuan (including tax) per share to all shareholders based on a total share capital of 183.021 billion shares, amounting to a total dividend of approximately 45.755 billion yuan, which will require approval from the shareholders' meeting.

2. Mingde Biology: Plans to acquire 100% equity of Wuhan Bikaier in cash

Mingde Biology announced on March 29 that the company plans to acquire 100% equity of Wuhan Bikaier Rescue Supplies Co., Ltd., held by Lanfang Medical Co., Ltd., in cash. Upon completion of this transaction, the target company will become a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, and this transaction is expected to constitute a major asset restructuring as defined by the Measures for the Administration of Major Asset Restructuring of Listed Companies.

3. Tianshan Aluminum: Expected net profit growth of 107.92% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026

Tianshan Aluminum announced that the net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company for the first quarter of 2026 is expected to be 2.2 billion yuan, an increase of 107.92% compared to 1.058 billion yuan in the same period last year; the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is expected to be 2.185 billion yuan, an increase of 110.45% compared to 1.038 billion yuan in the same period last year.

4. Sanor Bio: Plans to spend 150 million to 300 million yuan to repurchase shares

Sanor Bio announced that it plans to use its own funds to repurchase the company's shares from public shareholders through centralized bidding. The total amount of funds for this repurchase will not be less than 150 million yuan and not exceed 300 million yuan, with a repurchase price not exceeding 25.00 yuan/share (including). It is expected that the number of shares repurchased will be approximately 6 million to 12 million shares, accounting for about 1.0709% to 2.1418% of the company's currently issued total share capital.

5. Nanjing Panda: Achieved a net profit of 11 million yuan in 2025, turning losses into profits year-on-year

Nanjing Panda announced that the company achieved an operating income of 2.488 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 5.97%; achieved a net profit of 11 million yuan attributable to shareholders of the listed company, turning losses into profits year-on-year; achieved a net profit of -258 million yuan after deducting non-recurring gains and losses; achieved basic earnings per share of 0.01 yuan. The company's profit distribution plan for the whole year of 2025 is: based on 914 million shares, distributing 0.1 yuan (including tax) to all shareholders.

// Restricted Stock Unlocking //

Wind data statistics show that in this week (March 30 - April 3), a total of 29 companies have restricted shares being gradually unlocked, with a total of 1.334 billion shares unlocked. Based on the closing price on March 27, the total market value of the unlocking is 37.488 billion yuan.

In terms of unlocking market value, March 30 is the peak unlocking day, with 16 companies unlocking a total market value of 31.962 billion yuan, accounting for 85.26% of this week's unlocking scale. Based on the closing price on March 27, the top three companies in unlocking market value are: Hongri Da (10.846 billion yuan), Kefa Technology (8.191 billion yuan), and Wanrun New Energy (4.897 billion yuan). In terms of unlocking quantity, the top three companies by number of shares unlocked are: Supply and Marketing Big Collection (380 million shares), China Unicom (224 million shares), and Hongri Da (128 million shares).

In terms of the types of unlocked shares, there are 15 companies with original shareholders' restricted shares, 5 companies with equity incentive restricted shares, 3 companies with targeted issuance and allocation shares, 2 companies with general equity incentive shares, 2 companies with original issuance allocation shares, and 1 company of other types, along with 1 company with original shareholders' restricted shares of other types.

This week's restricted stock unlocking overview:

// New Stock Calendar //

Wind data shows that in this week (March 30 - April 3), there will be 3 new stocks issued, covering one each from the Beijing Stock Exchange, the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, and the Growth Enterprise Market. The specific issuance schedule is as follows: March 30 (Monday): Yuyuan Composite Materials (Sci-Tech Innovation Board), Saiying Electronics (Beijing Stock Exchange). April 3 (Friday): Dapu Micro (Growth Enterprise Market).

// Institutional Outlook for the Market //

CITIC Securities: In terms of allocation, it is suggested to continue to hold on to China's advantageous manufacturing industry

CITIC Securities' research report believes that the short-term capital market is still in a period of emotional cooling, and the loss-averse mentality may create some demand for position reduction. In terms of allocation, it is recommended to continue to adhere to China's advantageous manufacturing industry and wait for the decisive moves in April. The current base allocation is still in industries with share advantages, high difficulties in overseas capacity reset costs, and supply flexibility easily influenced by policies, using chemicals, nonferrous metals, electric equipment, and new energy as a foundation. Based on this base allocation, it is suggested to continue increasing exposure to undervalued factors, focusing on insurance, brokerage, and electricity.

Guoxin Securities: Recent adjustments are "thunderstorms," maintaining optimism for the market

Guoxin Securities' latest strategy report believes that the adjustments in the Shanghai Composite Index since March are primarily due to the spillover of geopolitical risks and fluctuations in cross-season liquidity. Currently, the Shanghai Composite Index briefly fell below 3,800 points, with major indices recording certain declines, but this is a normal technical retracement at the beginning of a bull market. With the concentrated landing of the "14th Five-Year" policy dividends in April and the commencement of first-quarter earnings previews, the market focus will return to the fundamentals of performance. Investors are advised to actively position themselves in technology manufacturing and core assets in resource categories with confirmed prosperity during the adjustment.

Dongwu Securities: Geopolitical expectations have become the core pricing factor, focusing on mid-term certainty

Dongwu Securities points out that the geopolitical situation has replaced AI industry logic as the core variable at present. The upward trend in oil prices poses pressure on global risk assets, with the direction of interpretation highly related to risk aversion sentiment. In the current context of expected volatility, investors should focus on finding varieties with mid-term certainty. In terms of style, it is suggested to balance allocation, paying attention to energy, resource commodities, and other geopolitical hedging targets, while also noting the clear policy direction of new energy, semiconductors, and other new productive forces, while being cautious of the risk of pullback for previously over-inflated theme stocks.

// Major Events Outlook //