When I use Lobster to analyze Bitcoin starting from the #openclaw #crypto position at $60,000, divided by probability:

I. If it's a leading wedge (probability 45%):
i: $60,000 → $72,271 (02-06 → 02-08)
• ii: $72,271 → $62,510 (02-08 → 02-24), pullback 79.5% (deep retracement, consistent with leading characteristics)
• iii: $62,510 → $74,050 (02-24 → 03-04), exceeds i high point ✅
• iv: $74,050 → $65,618 (03-04 → 03-08), pullback 73%, enters i price zone ✅ (leading wedge permissible)
• v: $65,618 → in progress, current high $76,000 (03-17)

Scenario One: If wave v completed at $76,000:
• Entire leading wedge: $60,000 → $76,000
• This is a major wave 1
• Wave 2 retracement targets: fib 50%-61.8% = $66,100-$68,100
• Current $71,091 falling, possibly in wave 2
• Break below $60,000 = leading wedge invalidated

Scenario Two: Wave v not yet complete (probability 25%):
• Current decline is internal pullback within wave v
• Wave v has one more push, target $77,000-80,000
• Wave 2 retracement begins after

II. If not a leading wedge (probability 30%): ABC downtrend continuation bounce
• $60,000 → $76,000 is just wave B bounce (fib 38.2% from $126,200 decline = $85,000, not reached)
• Weak bounce strength, wave B likely flat formation
• Subsequent wave C target $48,000-55,000

Key observations:
• $76,000 holds and breaks → wave v extension, leading wedge higher
• $66,000-68,000 stabilizes → wave 2 retracement complete, wave 3 launch signal
• Break below $62,510 (wave iv low) → leading structure damaged
• Break below $60,000 → completely invalidated