February 6 | ETH Price Trend Analysis

Key Points

Current Price: $1,918.20 (as of February 6, 2026)

Short-term Outlook: Technical indicators show an extremely oversold condition (daily RSI 23.62), combined with a significantly negative funding rate in the derivatives market (-1.3056%), suggesting a potential short-term technical rebound or "short squeeze." However, the price remains under pressure from key moving averages (20-day MA at $2,688), and the overall downtrend has not yet reversed.

Key Support: $1,820-$1,856 (recent lows and lower Bollinger Band)

Key Resistance: $2,000 (psychological level), $2,688 (20-day MA / middle Bollinger Band)

Detailed Analysis

Technical Situation

ETH is in a deep correction phase, dropping rapidly from the February 1 high of $2,709 to the current $1,918, a decline of 29.2%. Technical indicators show clear oversold signals:

• RSI: Daily RSI at only 23.62, in the extremely oversold zone (below 30), the lowest since 2026
• MACD: Daily MACD histogram shows a strong negative value of -101.17, indicating persistent downward momentum
• Bollinger Bands: Price approaching the lower Bollinger Band at $1,856, a typical area for technical rebounds

Derivatives Market Sentiment

Derivatives data reflect extreme market pessimism and leverage liquidation pressure:

• Funding Rate: Average -1.3056%, indicating crowded short positions and a strong bearish bias
• Liquidation Volume: Total of $570 million in liquidations over the past 24 hours, with longs accounting for 80% ($457 million), showing heavy losses for leveraged longs
• Long/Short Ratio: A liquidation ratio of 4:1, confirming technical conditions favoring a short squeeze

Market Structure Analysis

From the moving average system, ETH is currently in a clear bearish alignment:

• Price well below the 20-day MA ($2,688), 50-day MA ($2,929), and 200-day MA ($3,622)
• The 20-day MA at $2,688 is a significant resistance level; only a break above it could signal a reversal of the short-term downtrend
• The $2,000 psychological level is the first critical test point during a rebound

Risk Warning

Despite oversold signals in technical indicators, investors should note:

1. Overall market sentiment remains bearish, with open interest of $4.74 billion indicating high market activity and potential for continued volatility
2. A break below the key support at $1,820 could lead to further declines toward the $1,700-$1,750 zone
3. On-chain valuation metrics (such as MVRV) data are missing, making it difficult to fully assess ETH's valuation bottom

Trading Suggestion: In the short term, monitor the rebound near $1,856, but strictly control risk. Consider reducing positions if the price rebounds to the $2,000-$2,200 range. Long-term investors should wait for clearer reversal signals before re-entering.