#预测市场 After reading this exposé of whale operations on Polymarket, I was reminded of the scenes from the 2017 ICO frenzy. Back then, we were also fooled by various "professional players" with high win rates, with screens filled with profit screenshots and trading insights. It was only when the market turned that we realized—most of these were just survivor bias.

The analysis of 27,000 trades actually reveals a very old truth: inflated win rate rankings are always the biggest noise in the market. The real secret to wealth has never been in those shiny numbers, but in the logic repeatedly verified by a very small number of top players with real money. The prediction market sector is no exception.

I have seen too many cycles. From Bitcoin to DeFi, from blockchain wars to NFT bubbles, each time new stories of "smart money" circulate, and new retail investors believe them. The ones who last the longest and earn the most steadily are often those willing to admit they can make mistakes and suffer losses. Their win rates may seem ordinary, but they survive and keep making money.

Prediction markets are fundamentally a game of information. Those who can identify signals amid noise will win. But after removing false win rates and luck factors, what remains is often just one sentence: in the long run, only those who truly understand market cycles, master risk management, and can endure loneliness will make it to the end.

The script has been playing out repeatedly, just on a new stage.