#地缘政治风险 Seeing today's rebound, the first thought that flashed through my mind was—geopolitical risks have once again become a "safe haven tool" for the crypto market. The tense US-China situation pushed BTC above $91,000. I saw this logic in 2020, again in 2022, and now it's happening once more.

History always repeats itself, just with different actors.

The signals from the capital side are actually very clear: Bitcoin ETF’s single-day net inflow of $500 million, Binance’s momentum after CZ’s pardon (BNB up 4.83% this week), all point to institutional quietly increasing their positions. But what I want to say is, don’t be fooled by the surface-level gains. Look at the liquidation data—74,318 people wiped out in 24 hours, $172 million vanished into thin air, both longs and shorts are being liquidated. What does this indicate? It shows that the market is still in a state of betting, and no consensus has formed yet.

The performance of altcoins can better illustrate the issue. CVX up 31%, BONK up 28%, these are signals that risk appetite is recovering. But OG down 18%, FTT down 8%, which also hints that investors are selectively choosing assets, even selling off some controversial ones. After Binance’s "pardon effect" is digested, whether these high gains can be sustained remains a question.

The 58.6% market share of BTC is a critical line—breaking below 58% would mean the real rotation has begun. It’s not broken yet, indicating that Bitcoin remains the main player in this rebound, with altcoins just tagging along. From a historical cycle perspective, this stage is often the easiest to be proven wrong. Institutional absorption and emotional recovery might be the ceiling of this wave.

My advice is: hold the key supports of mainstream coins (BTC at 90600, ETH at 3135), and don’t be fooled by the gains into chasing high-risk assets. Geopolitical hedging demand is real, but also volatile. Once the situation eases, the selling pressure on risk assets will be fierce. This rebound is suitable for cautious investors to find opportunities to build positions, but not for aggressive traders to bet with high leverage.