An interesting market phenomenon: even though most heavy oil supplies flow to specific refineries, their prices are heavily suppressed by potential alternative supplies. The key point here is—market pricing is not only based on spot trading volume but also on what refineries can buy. In other words, the anticipated supply shock has already been reflected in the price. The logic behind this is worth pondering: market participants are always weighing marginal choices rather than simply focusing on current transactions. Any slight change on the supply side will immediately trigger price adjustments through expectations, which is why the market often leads fundamentals by a step.