The latest global fund manager survey by U.S. banks is quite interesting — the perception that companies are overspending on AI has eased somewhat in December, but overall sentiment remains pessimistic. This concern peaked in November last year, reaching levels not seen since 2005, and has not fully subsided to this day.

In simple terms, this wave of anxiety mainly stems from the frantic investments in AI infrastructure such as cloud computing and data centers. The capital expenditure by major tech companies in this area is unprecedented, while US stock valuations are still high and institutional cash holdings are not abundant. In this environment, the notion of "overinvestment" easily becomes an excuse for portfolio rebalancing and profit-taking, putting short- to medium-term pressure on US stocks, especially AI leaders and chip-related stocks.

However, on the other hand, capital expenditure is essentially a bet on future profit growth. If AI can truly drive significant productivity improvements, then these current debates might just be another "noise during the construction phase" in history.