#美联储货币政策 The variables surrounding the Fed Chair candidate are becoming increasingly uncertain. According to market bets, Haskett's probability has decreased to 44%, while Wosh has overtaken to 33%, indicating that market expectations for policy direction are dynamically adjusting.

This has a pretty direct impact on follow-trade strategies — the Fed Chair is related to the future monetary policy trajectory, directly affecting liquidity and risk appetite. I’ve been tracking the position adjustments of several macro traders recently, and I can clearly sense their cautious approach to positioning. Some are starting to reduce aggressive long positions, while others are setting stop-losses at key support levels, all leaving room for a policy reversal.

The key is to keep pace with the position sizing logic — if you’re following aggressive traders, it might be wise to slightly reduce your follow proportion at this stage, because the risk of liquidation under high volatility does exist; conversely, more conservative traders are worth paying extra attention to, as they tend to handle uncertainty more maturely.

With the candidate announcement window in January, the market may experience quite a bit of noise. The most important thing is to stick to your risk limits and not be swayed by short-term emotional fluctuations. That’s how the market is — the more complex the information environment, the more it tests your discipline in execution.