#机构采用 Seeing news of continuous institutional capital inflows, my first reaction is not excitement but increased caution. ETF size doubling to 400 billion, ongoing growth of institutions—these numbers look great, but the hidden risks behind them are often overlooked.

Remember the last bull market? When retail investors were FOMO chasing highs, institutions had already been deploying. This time, institutions have become the dominant force in the market, and the landscape has changed. Cantor’s analysis hits the nail on the head: the gap between price performance and the actual progress of projects is widening. What does this mean? It indicates that a large amount of capital is chasing expectations rather than value.

2026 might bring a cold winter, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing. Those who have experienced several cycles understand that clearing out the market and淘汰伪需求的项目, which means eliminating projects with false demand, is actually healthy for the ecosystem. The problem is, most people can’t tell which projects have real progress and which are just hype. Institutional entry indeed increases market maturity, but it also means retail investors are more easily deceived by carefully crafted narratives.

My simple advice: don’t let the size numbers hijack your judgment. Ask yourself three questions—what real problem does this project solve? Does the team have ongoing delivery capability? Is the current price based on real application or just expectations? If you can answer these, then it’s worth participating. Institutional adoption is a trend, but among those who survive the trend, it’s never the followers.