#预测市场 Seeing the revival of prediction markets in this wave, my mind flashed back to the history of 2017-2018. Back then, some were promoting prediction markets, but what was the result? Most projects faded away in the winter. And now, Intercontinental Exchange is investing $2 billion in Polymarket, Coinbase is directly acquiring The Clearing Company, and Kraken plans to enter by 2026—what's different this time?

Key point: Clear regulation. This is truly the game-changer. Old players like Robinhood and Coinbase won't blindly bet; they are waiting for this moment. The SEC's tough enforcement ultimately failed—driving entrepreneurs overseas and giving traditional financial giants the chance to define the industry direction. Look at the attitude shift in 2025—this isn't a technological breakthrough; it's an inevitable result of political cycles.

The same logic applies to stablecoins. Tether has become one of the most profitable companies per capita, which indicates that solid financial infrastructure is the real key. And what about those projects that once shouted "decentralized finance revolution"? Do Kwon's 15-year prison sentence is just one of the most dramatic failures in this cycle.

The logic behind the winners in this wave is clear: established giants + compliant infrastructure + clear demand. Prediction markets transforming from "traffic boosting tools" into genuine trading products is precisely because this logic holds. History will repeat, but not exactly the same. This time, the entry of big players is just the beginning of the story, not the end.