#数字资产行情上升 ZEC this wave of decline isn't over—technical, on-chain, and news dimensions are all bearish, and a rebound is a death trap for longs.

Over the years of trading, the thing I dislike most is indecision. To be direct: any short-term rebound in ZEC is a trap for bulls; the true support zone is between 360-370. Before a volume breakout with a bullish candle appears, trying to catch the bottom is like walking into a flying knife, it will hurt a lot.

Why am I so certain? Because there are three layers of validation:

**Technical Analysis**
On the 1-hour chart, all moving averages are collapsing—MA7, MA30, EMA7, EMA30 are all being broken through consecutively, with a clear bearish arrangement. The Bollinger Bands are opening downward, and the price has already fallen below the lower band at 418.21, which is typical of an oversold condition without a reversal. MACD is even more decisive; the two lines have a death cross below zero, and the green histogram is still expanding, indicating the bearish momentum is still building. Most importantly, the last candle closed near 387.92, close to the day's low, showing that selling pressure has not yet been fully released.

**On-Chain Data Signals Selling**
In the past 24 hours, several large whale addresses have transferred ZEC to major exchanges, totaling about 150,000 coins. The net inflow into exchanges is increasing, which means the distribution of holdings is decreasing, and retail panic selling may still be ongoing—far from the calm at the bottom.

**Regulatory Pressure Remains**
The US Treasury has recently stepped up regulation of mixers, with privacy coins being the primary target, and ZEC naturally is in the spotlight. Plus, Zcash's protocol upgrade (NU6) won't go live until Q1 2026, which means there is basically no short-term narrative support, and funds have no reason to come in now.

**How to Trade?**
If you want to short, you can try a small position on the rebound around 400-405, with a stop-loss at 415, targeting 370. If you want to go long, wait patiently until the daily chart shows a bottom with volume and clear reversal signals; otherwise, don't participate—probability isn't in your favor.

I've seen ZEC rise from 300 to 1000, and also fall back to 200. Currently, this pattern is just a continuation of the downtrend; the bottom is still far away. Trading is about playing probabilities, but the probabilities must be supported by data—when technical, on-chain, and news signals all point downward, going against the trend is no longer trading, it's gambling.

$ZEC