#比特币价格波动 Looking at this 364-day cycle analysis, I have to say: such pattern-based predictions sound comfortable, but they are often the easiest way to get people into trouble.

I was also brainwashed by similar "cycle theories" in my early years. Whether it's the golden ratio or the inevitability of history, in the end, it's all self-comforting. The truth is, the market never repeats exactly, and each time new variables come into play—policies, macroeconomic conditions, technological advances—any of which can break your "pattern."

This analysis suggests the bottom might be in October next year at $37,500, seemingly providing a clear expectation. But the problem is, if so many people are waiting for this level, the market might react in advance or might not reach it at all. That’s the essence of the game.

My simple advice: don’t treat this as a countdown. Instead of waiting around for a specific date and price, focus on more practical signals—like on-chain data, institutional movements, and policy trends. The real bottom often appears quietly when no one dares to look, not on the date everyone has calculated.

To survive longer, you need to abandon the illusion of "precise prediction." Keep cash reserves, control risk exposure, and prepare contingency plans—these are more valuable than any cycle theory.