#比特币ETF资金流动 Seeing this analysis from CryptoQuant, I feel a bit heavy-hearted. The three demand wave cycles from 2023 to date—spot ETF approvals, election market trends, and treasury company concepts—each made us think we had found a new growth engine. But the data is in front of us: after early October, demand has fallen below the long-term trend, and in Q4, US spot ETFs have shifted from accumulation last year to a net sell of 24,000 BTC.

This turning point reminds me of the end of 2021. At that time, the growth rate of 100-1000 BTC addresses also began to fall below trend levels—that was the silence before the bear market arrived. The current scene is very similar. Prices have broken below the 365-day moving average, which historically has been a watershed—at the boundary between bull and bear markets.

Weak demand is not just short-term fluctuation; it’s a signal. The incremental demand from the previous cycle has already been digested, and no new demand source has taken over. This means the fundamentals supporting the price are disappearing. The shift in ETFs is especially worth cautioning—once the flag bearers of institutional entry, now they are fleeing.

We have experienced too many cycles, each time thinking it’s different, but the pattern remains the same. History doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes. What we need to do now is recognize the boundaries of this cycle, rather than hope for a demand miracle in the next wave.