#链上应用与预测市场 Seeing this research report from Kalshi, I am pondering a question: why are market participants' predictions often more accurate than those of professional economists?

After carefully reviewing the data, I understand—prediction markets aggregate judgments from numerous traders based on real economic incentives. This "collective intelligence" indeed reacts more swiftly to market changes. Over 25 months, the average error was 40% lower, and during economic fluctuations, accuracy even exceeded consensus expectations by 67%. These are not small numbers.

But what I want to say is that this finding offers us no guidance to trade more frequently or chase predictions in our daily investments. On the contrary, it highlights the complexity and dynamism of market pricing. Because predictions are inherently so difficult, we should:

First, remain humble—no one can consistently predict the market accurately, including those who seem very smart.

Second, focus on what we can control—reasonable position management, clear asset allocation, sufficient cash reserves. These are always more important than guessing market directions.

Third, extend the time horizon—large short-term prediction errors are not a concern as long as your portfolio structure is healthy enough to withstand these fluctuations.

In the long run, a safe allocation will help us come out ahead more reliably than precise predictions.