The current situation of Bitcoin is somewhat like a table waiting to be reshuffled. Chips are shifting, funds are flowing in to replenish, but the big players haven't revealed their cards yet. The market's biggest fear isn't a straight decline, but a stalemate between bulls and bears — and today is exactly this kind of state, so managing positions well is much more important than stubbornly holding onto a particular view.

From a technical perspective, the risk control score has been oscillating from high levels in recent days and has clearly weakened, stabilizing at a relatively low level at the tail end. This is a very clear signal for large funds — the short-term explosive risk is indeed decreasing, but this doesn't mean the trend can be chased immediately. More accurately, this is creating space for the next directional choice, as if cleaning the card table. The core issue isn't whether to bottom fish or chase the rally, but to wait for a definitive signal that can push the risk score back up. It could be a volume breakout, a key position confirmation, or an acceleration from derivatives in the same direction. Until then, the safest approach is to keep positions light, monitor the market, and use options or hedging to replace pure directional trades, avoiding repeated shakeouts that hit stop-losses.

Looking at the whale's long positions, the curve shows a typical pattern of high-level consolidation followed by a stepwise decline — although there was a rebound in the middle, the overall direction is clear: whale-level longs are gradually reducing positions or leverage, clearly shrinking their risk exposure. What does this mean for retail traders? Even if there is an upward surge next, it’s more likely to be liquidity recovery or counterparties replenishing their positions, rather than a signal of whales continuously adding. Trading strategies need to be adjusted — don’t follow retail herd mentality, don’t chase the first spike, and avoid taking positions at the hottest emotional moments. Either wait until whale positions stabilize and start to recover with clear signals before increasing positions, or honestly scale in gradually with low buy-ins and risk management.