#市场调整与情绪 Q4 fell over 22%, and this data is enough to illustrate the issue. The seemingly rebound to 90,000 is essentially just technical correction, and the funding environment has not truly followed through. From an on-chain perspective, this round of rebound lacks incremental capital support, more of a combination of early short covering and short-term speculative battles.

The key information is that Bitcoin remains about 30% above its yearly low and below the level at the beginning of the year—this means that even with the rebound, we are still in a deep hole. The total crypto market cap climbing back above 3 trillion looks positive, but the improvement in market sentiment has not yet matched the price rebound, indicating that there is still strong profit-taking pressure in the market.

From a seasonal and liquidity perspective, frequent pullbacks during US trading hours are not accidental. Year-end is usually accompanied by tightening liquidity, combined with macro uncertainties, providing a solid objective reason for short-term volatility. My judgment is that before the shift in funding conditions, the sustainability of such rebounds is questionable, and short-term price fluctuation risks remain manageable but warrant attention.

It is recommended to continue monitoring the inflow and outflow of whale addresses and the flow of contract funds, as these are the true signals to judge whether the trend is reversing.