Polymarket Trader Loses 2 Million in 35 Days: The Cost of Blindly Following "Consensus"

【BlockBeats】Recently, I came across a rather heartbreaking trading case. A trader predicted on a trading platform and lost over 2 million USD in just 35 days.

This guy placed a total of 53 prediction orders, with a seemingly decent win rate of 51%. But this is an illusion—the key issue lies in strategy execution.

His trading logic was very simple: as long as most people were optimistic about something, he would bet on it. It sounds reasonable, but in practice, he made two fatal mistakes. First, he never set stop-loss points. Second, he didn’t do any hedging. As a result, those losing positions were all settled at the expiration date, or he was forced to exit only after the price had already plummeted to the bottom.

This story illustrates a truth: whether your predictions are correct is only one aspect; more importantly, it’s how you manage risk. No matter how high your win rate is, a trade without an exit plan can’t save you.