Bitcoin has already broken through the medium-term supply line, significantly increasing the probability of Scenario 1 occurring, which means Bitcoin may first rebound to the annual line, completing the fourth sub-wave rebound of Wave A, and then proceed with the fifth sub-wave decline to complete Wave A.

However, this scenario still requires confirmation of a rebound from MSTR's oversold bounce. If MSTR confirms a rebound in the next few trading days, then Bitcoin is highly likely to rebound to the annual line within this month; conversely, if MSTR continues to decline, Bitcoin is more likely to follow with a sideways decline.

Currently, MSTR has shown oversold signals such as daily RSI divergence at the bottom, making a rebound more probable.

If MSTR confirms a rebound, then after MSCI makes a definitive decision on January 15, the market will have two possible directions:

If MSCI decides to exclude MSTR as market expectations suggest, MSTR will end its rebound with a sharp decline, and Bitcoin will also end its rebound and decline, completing the last drop of Wave A. This scenario has a higher probability;

If MSCI unexpectedly decides not to exclude MSTR, MSTR is likely to continue rebounding, and Bitcoin will also continue its rebound, potentially breaking through the annual line.