2026-01-02 22:54:58

Everyone talks about it—those first few trading days of January supposedly set the tone for the entire year. But here's the thing: it's not that simple.

Year-start market moves get way too much hype. Sure, momentum matters, but betting your whole annual strategy on what happens in early January? That's asking for trouble. Real market cycles play out over quarters and years, not just the opening week.

Investors keep chasing this narrative because it feels neat and predictable. But market history shows plenty of counterexamples. Sometimes January's red turns into solid green by Q2. Sometimes a hot start fizzles out by March.

The lesson? Don't let January noise distract you from fundamentals. Position sizing, risk management, and macroeconomic factors matter way more than the calendar's opening gesture.

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

20 Likes

Reward
20
10
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

OPsychology

· 01-05 22:53

ngl January market situation has been hyped up too much, just like people insisting on checking the weather forecast on the first day of the lunar new year to predict the year's fortune... Actually, most of it is nonsense.

View OriginalReply0

WhaleShadow

· 01-05 15:01

Haha, it's true, the January curse is just a story. ngl I've seen too many people chase this narrative and get slapped in the face. It’s really satisfying to watch but not very useful. You still need to focus on fundamentals and not be led by the opening moves. Making money depends on the annual rhythm; you can't be hostage to the first two weeks.

View OriginalReply0

SighingCashier

· 01-05 07:25

Alright, alright, it's the same old theory. Every year, someone insists on hyping up January to the skies. I think, really, those who make real money aren't trading based on the calendar. Those who hype January's market are just the same old tricks to harvest the chives.

View OriginalReply0

SmartContractPlumber

· 01-04 10:58

Setting the tone at the beginning of the month? This kind of statement is just as unreliable as claiming an unverified contract has been "fully tested." Historical data has long proven that quarterly and annual cycles are the real variables, not how the market moves in the first few days of the year.

View OriginalReply0

LonelyAnchorman

· 01-02 23:25

Honestly, I stopped believing in the idea that January's market sets the tone for the whole year. I've been proven wrong so many times last year or even the year before.

View OriginalReply0

NFT_Therapy

· 01-02 23:24

Damn, it's that old saying "January determines the whole year" again. I'm already tired of it. Really, every time someone promotes how important the start of the year is, then in March there's a sharp correction to prove them wrong. It's boring. Fundamentals are the real key; don't let this calendar magic mess with your judgment.

View OriginalReply0

CryptoCross-TalkClub

· 01-02 23:18

Laughing to death, every year waiting for January's market trend to set the tone, and what’s the result? The retail investors still get cut as fast as ever --- Don’t listen to that nonsense, I used to believe it too in the early days, but now I’ve gone from January’s red to February’s green, and I don’t believe anything anymore except risk management --- January rise? That’s just a prelude to lure retail investors in; the real show can only be seen during a bear market --- Everyone here, don’t be fooled by the early-year market hype. That stuff is as unreliable as a project team’s white paper --- That’s right, but you want retail investors to look at the Q3 cycle? They can’t wait; they’ve already gone all-in --- Fundamentals? Position management? That kind of talk is too complicated for those throwing money around; they just want to buy the dip and get rich overnight

View OriginalReply0

HallucinationGrower

· 01-02 23:15

1. Is January really that decisive in the market? I think it's just hype created by marketing, there are too many counterexamples over the years. 2. Every year I hear this same story, and what happens? Often by March, it’s proven wrong, haha. 3. Instead of obsessing over a January rally, it’s better to focus on solid risk management. That’s the real long-term money-maker. 4. To put it nicely, it’s called a "good start," but honestly, it’s just gambler psychology at play. 5. Fundamentals are the key, don’t get blinded by daily K-line charts. 6. I just want to ask, does anyone really make money relying on January’s market performance? 7. Quarterly and yearly cycles are worth paying attention to; what’s the point of discussing weekly market trends? 8. Exactly, last January saw a huge drop, but the whole year still ended with positive returns. News sentiment is the core factor. 9. That’s why big players ignore January’s market and focus on macro fundamentals. 10. Position management and risk control will always be more profitable than guessing market movements. I agree.

View OriginalReply0

WenMoon

· 01-02 23:01

The January market trend is indeed easy to lead people astray. I've seen too many brothers get wiped out because they went all in after a strong start to the year.

View OriginalReply0

TopBuyerBottomSeller

· 01-02 22:56

To be honest, I'm already tired of this nonsense of "one month determines the whole year." I was tricked by this kind of rhetoric once last year...

View OriginalReply0

Trending Topics
View More
#
GateFun马勒戈币Surges1251.09%
28.76K Popularity
#
GateSquareCreatorNewYearIncentives
55.71K Popularity
#
NonfarmPayrollsComing
231.11K Popularity
#
DailyMarketOverview
12.58K Popularity
#
IstheMarketBottoming?
39.88K Popularity

Hot Gate Fun
View More

1
黑马
黑马
MC:$0.1Holders:1
0.00%
2
马上涨
马上涨
MC:$3.57KHolders:2
0.04%
3
马上有米
马上有米
MC:$3.52KHolders:1
0.00%
4
踏马涨
踏马涨
MC:$3.52KHolders:1
0.00%
5
K线涨
K线涨
MC:$3.52KHolders:1
0.00%

Sitemap

Everyone talks about it—those first few trading days of January supposedly set the tone for the entire year. But here's the thing: it's not that simple.

Trending Topics

GateFun马勒戈币Surges1251.09%

GateSquareCreatorNewYearIncentives

NonfarmPayrollsComing

DailyMarketOverview

IstheMarketBottoming?

Hot Gate Fun

黑马

黑马

马上涨

马上涨

马上有米

马上有米

踏马涨

踏马涨

K线涨

K线涨

Pin

Your First Words Matter!
Share your first post on and split $10,000 in New Year rewards.
Post with #My2026FirstPost to share your New Year wish
2026U Position Voucher, Gate New Year boxes, F1 Red Bull merch await you!
Ends on Jan 15, 2026, 16:00 UTC
2026 starts with this post!

Everyone talks about it—those first few trading days of January supposedly set the tone for the entire year. But here's the thing: it's not that simple.

Trending Topics

GateFun马勒戈币Surges1251.09%

GateSquareCreatorNewYearIncentives

NonfarmPayrollsComing

DailyMarketOverview

IstheMarketBottoming?

Hot Gate Fun

黑马

黑马

马上涨

马上涨

马上有米

马上有米

踏马涨

踏马涨

K线涨

K线涨

Pin

Your First Words Matter! Share your first post on and split $10,000 in New Year rewards. Post with #My2026FirstPost to share your New Year wish 2026U Position Voucher, Gate New Year boxes, F1 Red Bull merch await you! Ends on Jan 15, 2026, 16:00 UTC 2026 starts with this post!

Your First Words Matter!
Share your first post on and split $10,000 in New Year rewards.
Post with #My2026FirstPost to share your New Year wish
2026U Position Voucher, Gate New Year boxes, F1 Red Bull merch await you!
Ends on Jan 15, 2026, 16:00 UTC
2026 starts with this post!