#预测市场发展 Seeing the probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 again this year on Polymarket drop to 11%, my first reaction is not surprise, but a familiar déjà vu.

This reminds me of the scene at the end of 2017. At that time, everyone was shouting that Bitcoin would rise to $50,000, $100,000, with optimistic voices from forecasting institutions soaring higher and higher. And then? The long bear market that started in early 2018 left many trapped at high levels. History always repeats itself, only the participants change.

Carefully examining the logic behind this set of data—an 11% probability suggests that the market has basically given up on the expectation of breaking $100,000 within the year, but 32% of people are still betting on $95,000, while 24% of funds are defending the $80,000 line. What does this indicate? It shows that market sentiment has shifted from frenzy to divergence, from consensus to disagreement.

We have experienced too many such turning points. The rebound in 2015, the early bull market in 2019, the madness in 2021—each time, the probability first moves from extremes toward rationality, followed by a genuine price adjustment. A declining probability in market forecasts often signals the return of market rationality and the beginning of risk re-pricing.

This is not bearishness, just a reminder to stay vigilant. In a cycle, the most dangerous moment is often when consensus is strongest. The current caution may actually be the best way to protect oneself.