#央行降息行动 Seeing the Bank of Japan's move this time, I suddenly recalled the QE wave of 2013. Back then, central banks worldwide were easing monetary policy, and Japan was even more aggressive. The result? Yen depreciation, asset bubbles, imported inflation... It seems like the same script is playing out again, only this time it's a tightening cycle.

The weak yen has become a "shield" for interest rate hikes, which is an interesting logic. On the surface, it appears that inflation pressures are forcing the central bank to act, but in reality, the depreciation of the exchange rate has become an unbearable burden. The exchange rate level of 155, how much impact does it have on Japan's import costs and real income? Those who experienced those years should have a sense of it.

This reminds me of a rule: every policy shift by a central bank is not solely driven by economic data. Variables like exchange rates, asset prices, and social opinion often override model predictions. If Japan's yen continues to weaken after the rate hike this time, there will be another step next year. Such passive policy adjustments often indicate that market forces have already surpassed the central bank's control.

Looking back at the crypto market performance last year, even when central bank policies were still in development, the market was already pricing in it. Now that global central banks are truly shifting, the subsequent turbulence may not have fully unfolded yet.