January marks several major macroeconomic tests for the crypto market. Instead of blindly chasing short-term news, it’s better to clarify which big events this month can truly influence the market.

**January 9th is a watershed day**. The Federal Reserve’s new chair nomination and the US December unemployment rate will be released simultaneously. Market reactions will depend on two judgments: whether the central bank’s stance leans towards easing, and whether the US economy is showing clear signs of cooling down. There are only two possible outcomes—dovish stance combined with weak data will boost risk assets, while a hawkish stance or data exceeding expectations will suppress crypto prices.

**The real emotional turning point is on January 13th with the CPI data**. This is not just an ordinary economic indicator but a pivotal point for the entire month. A cooling inflation rate will boost expectations of rate cuts, and a rebound could put risk assets under pressure. Ultimately, BTC’s price logic isn’t based on crypto news but on expectations of US dollar liquidity.

The Bank of Korea’s interest rate decision on January 15th might be overlooked, but it directly affects liquidity in the Korean won trading pairs and the activity of Asian funds. This is especially critical for amplifying altcoin sentiment. Following closely is the Bank of Japan’s policy stance on January 22nd— as the last major ultra-loose central bank globally, any policy shift could cause a short-term impact on global risk assets due to the return of yen arbitrage funds.

**The FOMC meeting on January 27th is the ultimate answer**. Whether they clearly cut rates or signal dovishness will determine the market direction from the end of January and beyond.

Additionally, there is a long-term expectation worth noting—national-level crypto reserves. Once such news is confirmed, BTC’s role could shift from an asset to a national reserve tool, which is the true long-term bull case, rather than short-term hype.

Overall, January is not a month of sentiment but a month of decision-making. The current volatility is essentially the market waiting for macroeconomic answers.