Analysts are bearish on 56,000, but market signals are telling the opposite story.

CryptoQuant Research Director Julio Moreno recently stated that Bitcoin entered a bear market two months ago and predicted that the bottom over the next year could be between $56,000 and $60,000. This judgment is based on technical indicators such as the 1-year moving average. However, when comparing this to the actual market performance, an interesting contradiction emerges: although bearish signals do exist, the market’s complexity far exceeds a single prediction.

Logic and Risks of the Bottom Prediction

Prediction details

According to reports, Moreno’s forecast is based on Bitcoin’s actual price and historical performance. Currently, Bitcoin is priced at $88,652, leaving approximately 33-37% downside to the predicted bottom range ($56,000–$60,000). This means that if the prediction is correct, Bitcoin would need to fall nearly one-third from its current level.

Technical support

The 1-year moving average serves as a long-term trend indicator. Data indicates that Bitcoin’s 30-day decline is 5.34%, suggesting recent downward pressure. Additionally, trading volume in the futures market has fallen to a new low since June 2024, approximately $1.09 trillion, with this contraction in trading activity typically reflecting cautious market participants.

Contradictions in Market Signals

Evidence of bearishness

• Futures trading volume has sharply declined, indicating reduced interest in high-risk contracts
• Coinbase premium has turned negative (-$122), suggesting weakening buy pressure in the US market and even selling pressure
• US traders’ purchasing power on Coinbase has significantly weakened
• Price has shown a downward trend over the past month

Clues of bullishness

Conversely, the performance of long-term holders reveals different signals. According to the latest data, long-term holders who have held for over a year have not engaged in large-scale selling. The coin age consumption remains at a high level historically but has not triggered panic selling. This indicates that large holders are still holding their positions, believing that the bottom is near.

Market in a “Delicate Balance”

The current market condition is a subtle equilibrium:

This state resembles a “sideways consolidation” — long-term players have positioned themselves, but new capital has yet to follow, causing prices to stagnate at relatively high levels.

How to interpret this prediction

From a personal perspective, Moreno’s forecast, while based on reasonable technical indicators, has several issues to note:

• Broad time frame: The prediction states “by 2026” to reach the bottom but lacks specific months, allowing for significant market volatility
• Limitations of on-chain data: Data from long-term holders reflects on-chain behavior but cannot fully capture institutional funds and derivatives market intentions
• Uncertainty of prediction: Even if historical data has reference value, it does not guarantee history will repeat

Summary

The analyst’s bear market judgment and bottom prediction are supported by technical factors, but actual market signals are more complex. The steadfastness of long-term holders contrasts with shrinking trading volume, and weak US demand indeed adds downward pressure. If the prediction proves correct, Bitcoin could fall over 30%; however, if the confidence of long-term holders reflects the market’s true bottom, the risk of a breakdown might be limited. The key is to continuously observe actual market performance rather than overly rely on a single forecast. Currently, the market is in a waiting phase, and new catalysts (whether policy changes, macro data, or capital flow shifts) may be crucial in determining the next direction.