#央行降息行动 The Bank of Japan's 25 basis point rate hike is finally implemented, and this signal is worth paying attention to. From on-chain data, the market reaction remains restrained—BTC briefly rose by 2%, without extreme volatility.

Key points to observe: First, the movement of high-position chips. Whale wallets usually show clear signs of accumulation or reduction during such policy windows, requiring tracking of large transfers and the timing of exchange inflows and outflows. Second, the authenticity of market sentiment. Analysts' bullish consensus can indeed boost expectations, but it depends on whether there is corresponding on-chain capital support—there's a big difference between retail follow-the-leader and genuine institutional allocation.

From the perspective of interest rate policy, Japan's rate hike narrows the yen arbitrage space, which could indeed increase demand for alternative assets. But I am more concerned about the chain reaction of subsequent central bank actions. If other central banks follow suit and tighten policy, overall liquidity will become tighter, and whether on-chain incremental funds can sustain this rebound remains to be seen.

Currently, the main resistance zone is indeed between $98,600 and $107,000. It is recommended to focus on monitoring large transaction activities and exchange fund flows within this range—if a breakout is accompanied by reduced exchange inflows, it indicates genuine incremental buying; otherwise, caution is advised.