#美联储货币政策 The Federal Reserve's balance sheet expansion and weaker-than-expected non-farm payroll data are clear signals of liquidity improvement. From an on-chain perspective, the past week has seen a significant increase in large transfers, and net inflows into whale wallets are also rebounding.

The key point is that the market has already fully priced in concerns about the AI bubble and Japanese interest rate hikes—this means that the reasons for a decline are being gradually digested. Expectations of rate cuts are amplifying, and the risk of a trading recession is decreasing. This combination indeed presents a relatively friendly window for risk assets.

However, it is important to view this rationally: the next 1-2 months may be a good period for positioning, but cyclical pullbacks are also likely to occur. Each pullback warrants close attention to on-chain fund flows, as these moments often present opportunities for large holders to increase their positions. Now is not the time to chase highs; it is the time to gradually accumulate positions at a risk-controlled level.