Polymarket bets on Bitcoin with a 100% chance of closing 2025 at this price

2026-01-02 01:43:44

Source: PortaldoBitcoin Original Title: Polymarket bets on Bitcoin with 100% chance of closing 2025 at this price Original Link: Bitcoin is expected to finish the year above the US$ 78,000 range. At least according to Polymarket bettors. The platform indicates a 100% probability that the cryptocurrency will close the last day of 2025 quoted above this level.

However, this is not the only bet with maximum conviction. Bettors also assign a 100% probability to the scenario where Bitcoin closes the year above US$ 80,000.

The liquidity of this bet reaches US$ 866,000, and contracts with a 100% probability pay the minimum possible amount: one cent per share if the prediction is confirmed.

Market confidence goes even further. Bets that Bitcoin will end the year above US$ 82,000 and US$ 84,000 show a 99% probability, according to Polymarket. For a close above US$ 86,000, the estimated chance drops to 93%.

Prizes start to become more attractive in the next range. The bet that Bitcoin will stay above US$ 88,000 has a 56% probability and pays about 42 cents per share.

Next is the US$ 90,000 mark, with only a 13% probability. In the most optimistic extreme of the market, the chances are 2% for Bitcoin above US$ 92,000 and just 1% for a close above US$ 94,000.

It is important to highlight that Polymarket’s probabilities do not work like a traditional election, where all options must sum to 100%. Each bet is an independent market, with its own question, liquidity, and price formation. This means different scenarios can, at the same time, present very high probabilities.

BTC2.05%

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