#比特币价格走势 Polymarket data update, the probability of BTC reaching 100,000 has fallen to 25%, a change worth noting. The expectation of 110,000 is only 4%, and the probability of dropping below 80,000 has increased to 22%—the market's pricing on the upside is clearly tightening.

From on-chain fund flows, the probability changes in such prediction markets usually reflect the true chip allocation of large players. When the expected high position gradually cools from a previously high probability to this level, it indicates that institutions and large participants are reassessing the market rhythm for Q4.

A key point to watch is the subsequent whale movements—if large holders start gradually reducing or balancing their positions, it will serve as a more direct signal. Also, pay attention to the inflow and outflow of funds on exchanges, especially the direction of large orders, which often reflect the true market intentions earlier.

In the short term, it may be necessary to adjust expectations for a year-end rally and consider more defensive strategies.