2026-01-01 23:21:15

Recently, the focus of the crypto market has been on an interesting phenomenon—Dogecoin (DOGE) futures contract volume surged by 7%, with open interest surpassing $12.25 billion. In stark contrast, the spot price fell by 0.8%, and trading volume shrank significantly by 28.18%. This "one side hot, one side cold" contradictory market trend can indeed be confusing.

Many traders, seeing the surge in futures volume, instinctively believe that a rebound is imminent. However, this is a common cognitive trap. High futures trading volume only reflects increased market participation and heightened speculative sentiment, but it does not indicate the market direction. In other words, the $12.25 billion in open interest could be from aggressive long positions or from shorts setting a trap.

At this point, technical indicators are needed to assist in judgment. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) ranges from 0 to 100, with readings below 40 typically considered oversold. DOGE's current RSI is at 38, clearly entering the oversold zone. What does this mean? It indicates that selling pressure has been released quite sufficiently, and the room for bears to push prices lower is relatively limited. When the market is in an extremely oversold state, a rebound opportunity often arises—but only if you can correctly identify this signal.

Combining these two dimensions: the surge in futures volume reflects strong market expectations for the next move, while the oversold RSI suggests limited downside potential. When these conditions occur together, it is usually worth closely watching the subsequent price reaction. However, the specific trading approach still depends on your risk tolerance and trading strategy.

DOGE8.68%

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

10 Likes

Reward
10
6
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

MoonRocketman

· 7h ago

RSI is already at 38 and still dropping? The launch window is probably about to open. --- Large futures positions are piling up, while the spot market is falling... a typical lull before fueling, just waiting. --- 122.5 billion in open interest, one side hot, one side cold—what do you call this... just a gravity correction. --- Oversold to 38 and still being sold? The bears are not far from escape velocity. --- Spot price down 28% with trading volume, while futures surge by 7%... this angle is wrong, the trajectory needs adjustment. --- Long and short positions stacking up with oversold conditions, isn't this setup just pre-bounce consolidation? --- RSI stuck at 38, selling pressure has mostly been released, now it’s just a matter of who ignites first.

View OriginalReply0

GateUser-a180694b

· 7h ago

Dogecoin's recent move is truly amazing. Futures are疯狂吸筹 while spot prices are actually plunging. Where is the promised linkage?

View OriginalReply0

TideReceder

· 7h ago

Futures volume explodes while spot prices fall, I've seen this trick too many times, and in the end, it's always the retail investors taking the hit. RSI 38 oversold... hmm, maybe a rebound, maybe a further drop, who the hell knows. 122.5 billion in open positions, are the bulls or bears setting the trap? Anyway, I don't dare to bet. Looking at this market now, technical indicators are less reliable than watching how the main players want to harvest. The recent DOGE trend has caused a mental explosion; it's better to wait for clearer signals before jumping in. Futures volume rising while prices fall is a classic contrarian signal; the bulls should be cautious. In this contradictory market, I trust my stop-loss more than any RSI. Whether DOGE can rebound before the end of the month, we'll see then who makes money and who loses.

View OriginalReply0

IronHeadMiner

· 7h ago

Futures surge while spot prices fall, is this old trick, a false rally, or a genuine rebound? --- RSI at 38 indicates oversold conditions, trying to buy the dip, but be careful of getting trapped again. I think it still depends on whether it can break the 12.25 billion resistance level. --- What does a surge in contract volume indicate? It shows that big funds are positioning, but who the heck knows the direction? --- One moment hot, the next cold—this is DOGE’s daily routine. Let’s wait and see how it develops. --- This data looks like a bottom signal, but Dogecoin is best at fake rebounds. I don’t believe it. --- Oversold conditions might still lead to further declines. Don’t be fooled by this theory. --- Spot trading volume has shrunk by 28%, which is a real danger signal. No matter how large the futures volume is, it’s useless. --- Let’s wait and see if the bottom can be confirmed. I’ve seen too many scam rebounds with DOGE. --- What’s the use of RSI at 38? The key is still what institutions are doing. --- Another situation of one positive and one negative move. If you don’t understand, don’t trade. Capital preservation first.

View OriginalReply0

AmateurDAOWatcher

· 7h ago

Dogecoin's recent moves are indeed a bit tense, with futures疯狂拉量 while spot is falling—classic long-short battle. RSI is already at 38, and you still want to keep pushing down? Haha, are the bears committing suicide? The key still depends on how this .5 billion open interest will move—rebound or continue to drop. We'll see within 2 days.

View OriginalReply0

ProofOfNothing

· 7h ago

Futures surge while spot prices fall—what a stark contrast... RSI38 oversold is actually a well-known topic; the key is whether it can truly rebound. However, with 12.25 billion in open interest... I don't know who is setting the trap, bulls or bears. Anyway, I'm on the sidelines.

View OriginalReply0