2026-01-01 21:22:51

From the low point in November rebounding to the current price level of 88,000/3,000, honestly, it looks more like a bottoming and sideways correction after a major adjustment rather than the late stage of a prolonged bear market.

Based on the current technical structure, I tend to divide the future trend into two paths:

**Path A**: Surge again in the first half of 2026, possibly even hitting new highs → I give this probability a 60-65%. The main reason is that the current adjustment's depth and duration are not enough to fully release the energy.

**Path B**: Directly reach the highest point of this bull cycle around this level, then slowly enter a long-term bear market → This probability is approximately 35-40%. There are still quite a few defensive positions to consider.

Overall, it's more of a choice at the moment, with many variables to observe ahead.

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SiYu

· 10h ago

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NoStopLossNut

· 12h ago

Bottoming out and consolidating is just that, anyway, we're just seeing if we can push up another wave. Betting on a probability of over 60% isn't a loss either.

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APY_Chaser

· 12h ago

The probability of betting on route A is over 60%. This logic is still a bit optimistic; the energy release thing is hard to predict.

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SolidityStruggler

· 12h ago

I agree with the logic of this bottoming process, but to be honest, a surge in the first half of 2026 sounds a bit too optimistic. While the sideways correction is a correction, the idea that energy release is a complete false proposition, if prices really rise, who would still care about whether energy is released or not?

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AlwaysMissingTops

· 12h ago

The probability of over 60% favoring Route A still feels too conservative; who can say for sure about energy release? Wait, what does "more defensive positions" mean? Shouldn't we start accumulating now? We've heard the bear market theories before, last year. Is this time really different?

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GasGuzzler

· 12h ago

The 60-65% probability is indeed a bit optimistic. It feels like this correction isn't going to be that simple. However, I agree with the assessment that a sideways correction is more comfortable than directly entering a bear market.

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ChainSpy

· 12h ago

The probability of betting on route A is over 60%. I trust your analysis this time. I'm just worried that a black swan might come later; after all, uncertainties are unpredictable.

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