Recently, the most common thing fans have been saying is: "Followed the trend and bought ADA at the bottom, and now my salary is cut in half. My mental state is collapsing." I can understand this sense of despair, but frankly, this is the price of not doing your homework—who do you lose if not yourself?

The 346x liquidation event of ADA was actually the market using the most straightforward way to tell us a truth: trading is not about "betting on ups and downs," but about "playing probabilities." It sounds simple, but 99% of people get it wrong.

Let me break it down. To enter the market, the probability must be over 70% to have a chance; if the probability is less than 50%, the smartest move is to do nothing. Looking at ADA's situation at that time, from a data perspective, it completely did not support going long: retail long positions accounted for 69% (a dangerous signal—retail investors all expecting a rise often means a reversal is imminent), institutional short positions accounted for 70.7% (institutions have better information and funds than retail investors; their collective shorting indicates a problematic direction), and the amount of long liquidations was 346 times that of shorts (this data is the most painful—more liquidations mean the longs are weakening).

How do I interpret these three dimensions? I call it the "Three Elements Analysis Method"—retail sentiment, institutional positions, and liquidation data. When these three signals point in the same direction, the market's trend is hard to reverse. At that time, all three elements pointed to one conclusion—do you still dare to bet against it?

Honestly, many people losing money never did the math. They see the price drop and only think about "buying the dip," but never ask themselves: what is the actual probability of winning this trade? How are the institutions positioning themselves? How intense is the market sentiment? If you don't clarify these questions before entering, you're gambling, not trading.