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Federal Reserve rate cut expectations fluctuate: the probability of holding steady in January next year rises to 82%, and there is still a window for rate cuts before March.
【区块律动】最新的CME美联储观察数据出炉了。明年1月降息25个基点的预期小幅抬升至17.7%，但维持利率不变的概率更大，达到82.3%。
往后看到3月。美联储在这个窗口内维持利率不变的概率为46.7%，另一半概率涉及降息——累计降息25个基点占45.6%，降息50个基点仅占7.7%。换句话说，下半年的降息空间被市场定价得极为克制。
时间表是确定的：美联储的FOMC会议定在2026年1月28日和3月18日。这两次会议，会不会成为年初的催化剂？市场在等答案。