The latest polling data shows an interesting contrast: support for a certain top political figure has dropped to 36%, the second-lowest during their term, while Federal Reserve Chair Powell has become the most popular figure in politics.

You might ask: does the low support rate for leaders have anything to do with our crypto investments? On the surface, it seems unrelated, but digging deeper, the underlying logical shifts could be the biggest variable in the crypto world in the second half of the year.

Let's review the background. Why did the crypto market surge wildly over the past two years? Institutional funds kept pouring in, and policy restrictions gradually loosened. To a large extent, this rally rode on the tailwinds of accommodative policies. Loose fiscal stimulus and abundant liquidity—cryptocurrencies, as a popular hedge against inflation, naturally benefited greatly.

Now the question has changed: with support plummeting to this extent, political teams will definitely look for ways to reverse the situation. But here’s a core question: can they still push forward with aggressive easing and give the green light to the crypto market as they did before?

Let's look at two key factors. First, the decline in support directly weakens political leverage, making it harder to push through more aggressive policies in Congress, with increased opposition. Second, Powell currently enjoys immense popularity, but the Federal Reserve has always been cautious about the crypto market—this creates a delicate check and balance. If policy focus shifts toward financial prudence, the policy benefits previously enjoyed by the crypto market may shrink.

From another perspective, this change in support rates is also a signal of market re-pricing. Institutions and retail investors alike need to adapt to a potentially more cautious and complex policy environment. Those who can perceive this shift early will be able to find opportunities amid the next phase of market volatility.