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Markets have always been about storytelling. However, this time, the stories told by gold and Bitcoin are completely opposite in direction.
Yesterday, gold hit a new high, breaking through $4,500 per ounce, with an annual increase of over 70%. Silver is even more outrageous, surpassing $72, with a year-to-date gain of over 120%. But what about Bitcoin, once touted as "digital gold"? It has fallen from its October high of $126,251 down to $87,000, wiping out all its gains for the year.
As an observer who has been involved in the digital asset space for several years, I want to discuss with you today—things most people haven't fully understood behind these movements.
**Central Banks Are Quietly Changing the Rules of the Game**
On the surface, the reason for gold's surge is cliché: geopolitical tensions and the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates. But if you truly believe that’s all there is, then you’re missing the bigger picture.
The key point is—central banks around the world are engaging in an unprecedented gold rush. The data from the World Gold Council is clear—what does this reflect? Deep-seated unease about the dollar’s credibility and U.S. sovereign debt. Especially in emerging markets, central banks are acting most actively, essentially voting with their actions, indicating that confidence in the dollar is wavering.
**Lower Interest Rates Are Changing Asset Allocation Logic**
The market now widely expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates twice next year. Once rates decline, yields on cash assets like bonds will be compressed to unattractive levels. Relative to that, the appeal of physical assets like gold is being elevated.
This is not just economics; it signifies a fundamental shift in the pattern of asset allocation.