The 2025 market interprets what is called "ice and fire" in a brutal way.

Precious metals are experiencing a bloody battle to the sky—on December 25th, gold broke through $4,500 per ounce, with an annual increase of nearly 70%, making it the second strongest year since 1979. Silver is even more extreme, with international spot silver rising by 132%, and domestic silver T+D contracts surging by 7.79% in a single day in December, breaking new highs for the first time in 14 years.

What about BTC? As of December 25th, it has fallen 7.4% year-to-date, retracing over 30% from its October all-time high. The S&P 500 has repeatedly hit new highs, but the weak performance of the benchmark crypto asset is enough to ring alarm bells for investors about the cycle.

This divergence is no coincidence. Looking back at history, gold experienced a long 20-year adjustment period (1980-2000), falling from $850 per ounce to $251.95 per ounce, a decline of 70%. Silver was even worse—the last historical peak was in May 2011, followed by a 13-year decline of up to 73%. During this long sideways period, most impatient participants were weeded out, and only in 2025 did it finally rebound and break through.

This is actually the long-term cycle law at work. The cyclical movement of assets does not change with human will. High volatility often indicates greater opportunities—so long as you can endure those long dormant periods.