Attention all traders, today we will not discuss candlestick patterns or market predictions. I want to talk about a phenomenon that most people overlook: the gap between consistently profitable traders and those who keep losing money is not primarily about technical skills, but about the depth of understanding of several key "psychological traps."



Over the past few years, I have observed many traders' accounts, including my own early records. It was only after careful review that I realized—learning to avoid these thinking errors is far more important than chasing perfect indicator systems.

**The First Trap: The Win Rate Myth**

"That analyst has an 80% win rate, they must be really skilled!"
"I made 10 trades this month and won 8—I'm on a roll!"

Be cautious when hearing these kinds of statements. You might be on the verge of losses.

Why? Because a high win rate and high returns are never a perfect pair. The reality is: strategies with high win rates often come with very low risk-reward ratios. For example, some grid strategies can achieve over 85% win rate, but they close positions after earning 1 point, and when they lose, they might lose 50 points at once. Mathematically, over the long term, this results in losses.

Another phenomenon is called "survivor bias"—you only see others posting screenshots of 8 consecutive wins, but you don't see the times they experienced a complete wipeout or a crash. Win rate data can be very deceptive. I can easily design a system with a 90% win rate: the method is simple—take profits quickly when in profit, and hold on stubbornly when losing. Short-term win rates look fantastic, but the final outcome often results in liquidation.

**What should traders do**

Instead of chasing high win rates, it’s better to establish a balanced "win rate - risk-reward ratio" system. Some contrarian strategies may only have a 45%-55% win rate, but a single successful trade can cover 5-10 stop-loss trades. From a probability and expected value perspective, this is actually a better choice.

The key is to accept the concept of "reasonable losses." Under controlled risk, allowing each trade to fail is actually the right path toward stable profits.

The crypto market is highly volatile, and the psychological tests are intense. Many people fail not because they can't read the charts, but because they are repeatedly caught by these invisible psychological traps.
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FlyingLeekvip
· 4h ago
Really, win rate is the most deceptive thing. I was fooled by this trick before. When I had an 8-win streak, I thought I was chosen by the heavens, but then a wave of losses wiped it all out. It’s hilarious. --- Profit and loss ratio is the real key. What’s the use of a high win rate if you suffer a big loss once and it’s all over. --- That’s why so many people seem to be making money but are actually losing. Data can lie a lot... --- Thanks for the lesson. I’ve always been fixated on win rate, no wonder my account keeps shrinking. --- The concept of reasonable loss really woke me up. I used to think in terms of stubbornly holding on. --- Survivor bias hit me hard. Those who post daily screenshots of 8-win streaks, but no one shows a margin call or liquidation, right? --- After watching, I feel a bit scared. Turns out, a high win rate can actually be a trap... --- I’m the kind of person who closes a position after earning just 1 point, but only stops loss after losing 50 points. Now I finally understand why I’ve never made any money. --- So, being able to read the market doesn’t mean you can make money. Mental resilience is the real key.
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MiningDisasterSurvivorvip
· 4h ago
I've been through it all. Those analysts with an 80% win rate are ultimately just spokespeople for Ponzi schemes. I was also brainwashed by this narrative in 2018, and it wasn't until my last liquidation that I finally woke up.
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NftRegretMachinevip
· 4h ago
Can an 80% win rate still result in losses? It just reminded me of my account screenshot from last year haha. Back then, I was making small profits on each trade, but a single drawdown wiped everything out. This article hit the mark.
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TommyTeachervip
· 4h ago
That 80% win rate scheme is really a big scam. I've seen too many people get fooled by it. The key is still the risk-reward ratio; earning one dollar and losing ten dollars, no matter how you calculate it, is a loss.
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