Recently, many people have been paying attention to the Bank of Japan's moves, but many are scared off by the words "interest rate hike." As soon as they hear about a rate hike, they instinctively think of tightening, draining liquidity, and then start imagining various market shocks. After listening to the central bank governor's full statement, it becomes clear that this rate hike is not a radical shift, but just a small step from an extremely loose stance toward a more normal policy.



To understand what this really means, we need to review Japan's monetary policy over the past thirty years. After the asset bubble burst in the 1990s, Japan has been fighting deflation. From zero interest rates to negative interest rates, and then to quantitative and qualitative easing, various measures have been implemented in turn. The policy tone of the central bank back then was summed up in one word: "fight." Over time, Japan's easing has become so extensive that it can no longer be measured by conventional standards.

Now, this rate hike is essentially a move from this "unconventional extreme state" back toward normalcy. The governor repeatedly mentioned "normalization steps" in his speech, implying that there's no need to overthink—there won't be a series of large, continuous rate hikes; policy will proceed gradually. Why now? Because Japan's inflation has been above the 2% target for 44 consecutive months, and wage growth has created self-reinforcing inflation expectations, providing a reason to exit the ultra-loose stance.

In simple terms, the Bank of Japan doesn't intend to suddenly shift its stance but aims to gradually relax from "screwing things down tightly" to "normal tightness." Compared to the liquidity of Bitcoin and digital assets, this kind of moderate policy adjustment pressure is actually manageable—the market has already been digesting the expectations of global central bank normalization. The key is not to be misled by surface information but to see through the true pace behind the policy.
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