Trump "implied" the candidate for the Federal Reserve Chairman: How will Hassett's succession reshape global liquidity?

On December 3rd, a remark by Trump during a Cabinet meeting at the White House sent a ripple through global financial markets. When introducing Kevin Hassett, the Director of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, he blurted out: "The potential Federal Reserve Chair is right here."

This not only confirms the media's speculation over the past few weeks but also marks the official beginning of the power transition at the Federal Reserve.

Leader Hassett: Just one step away from "candidate" to "president"

Although Trump stated that he would officially announce the nomination "early next year," sources say that Hassett is already the "front-runner." The 63-year-old economist previously served as the chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers during Trump's first term and is set to return to government as the director of the National Economic Council in January 2025.

The advantages of Haset are obvious:

1. Loyalty and policy alignment: He is one of the few economists who publicly endorsed Trump's "rapid rate cuts" proposal. Trump criticized Powell as a "stubborn mule who may not like you as president," while Hassett is seen as a key bridge to convey the president's will to the Federal Reserve.

2. Professional qualifications: Holds a Ph.D. in Economics, previously served as an economist at the Federal Reserve, and was confirmed by a bipartisan majority in the Senate in 2017 for the nomination as chair of the Council of Economic Advisers. This provided him with political capital to navigate the Senate confirmation process.

3. Connection to the cryptocurrency industry: Financial disclosures earlier this year revealed that Hasset holds between $1 million and $5 million in Coinbase stock. This makes him the first Federal Reserve chairman candidate with a deep financial interest in crypto assets, which could change the central bank's regulatory tone towards digital assets if nominated.

Timeline Game: Why Choose to Announce "Early Next Year"?

Trump could have announced the candidates before Christmas, and Besant had also hinted at this timing. However, postponing it until early next year may involve three considerations:

• Avoid market volatility at year-end: Announcing significant personnel changes during the low liquidity period of the Christmas-New Year holiday can easily trigger drastic fluctuations in asset prices.

• Observe economic data: In January, complete annual inflation and employment data for 2025 will be released, providing stronger economic fundamentals to support the nomination.

• Political window period: The announcement of candidates at the beginning of 2026 can ensure that the Senate confirmation process is completed before spring, seamlessly connecting with Powell's term ending on May 15.

The independence of the Federal Reserve faces a "Trump-style" challenge.

Hassett's potential appointment pushes Trump's ambition to reshape the Federal Reserve to its peak. Historically, it is common for presidents to influence central banks through the nomination of chairpersons, but what is unique about Trump is his style of openly applying pressure:

• He has repeatedly claimed that he "has the right to fire" Powell (a move that is widely considered illegal in the legal community).

• Directly link monetary policy to stock market performance

• Require the Federal Reserve to adjust interest rates in accordance with its tariff policy.

Besant recently revealed that the Trump team has interviewed about 10 candidates and narrowed it down to one final choice. This process is completely led by the White House, rather than being traditionally decided by discussions between the Treasury Secretary and the President, highlighting Trump's absolute desire for control over central bank personnel.

The dual impact on the cryptocurrency market

Hasett's Coinbase holdings have drawn significant attention from the crypto community. His potential appointment could bring:

Short-term bullish expectations: The market interprets this as a "pro-crypto" signal, which may drive a more relaxed regulatory environment. After the news broke on November 26 that Hasset was leading, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly fell below 4%, indicating that investors expect a looser monetary policy.

Long-term structural risks: If the independence of the Federal Reserve is compromised, concerns about the credit of the dollar may intensify, which theoretically benefits Bitcoin's "digital gold" narrative. However, if Hassert adopts a more hawkish stance than expected to prove its independence, it could instead severely impact risk assets.

Market impact: it's not just about "faster rate cuts"

If Hasett takes office, his policy inclination is most likely to be:

• A more aggressive path of interest rate cuts: rates may be lowered to below 3% by 2026 to support Trump's economic growth goals.

• Coordinate with fiscal policy: Provide liquidity support for Trump's tariff policy and fiscal expansion.

• Maintain an open attitude towards crypto assets: This may encourage the Federal Reserve to explore a digital dollar while relaxing restrictions on banks' participation in crypto businesses.

But the risk is that a rapid interest rate cut could reignite inflation, forcing a rate hike again in the second half of 2026, creating a new policy roller coaster.

The suspense remains: Trump's "surprise" tradition

Despite Hassert leading, Trump is known for changing his mind at the last moment. Other finalists include Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller (hawkish), Michelle Bowman, former governor Kevin Walsh, and BlackRock executive Rick Ried.

White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre responded: "No one knows what the president will do until he actually acts. Stay tuned!"

Investor Response Strategies

Before the official announcement of the nomination, the market will maintain high volatility amid uncertainty. Suggestion:

1. Leverage Control: Changes in expectations regarding Federal Reserve policies may trigger significant volatility, and leverage risks above 3 times are extremely high.

2. Pay attention to U.S. Treasury yields: A drop in the 10-year yield below 4% is a signal of easing, while a rebound to 4.5% warrants caution.

3. Crypto Position Hedging: Hasett's Coinbase holdings are a double-edged sword, and it may be worth considering options to hedge against unexpected risks.

Conclusion: A Turning Point of an Era

Trump's "explicit" message to Hasset is not only a personnel appointment but also a "Stress Test" for the independence of the Federal Reserve. If Hasset successfully takes office, the world will welcome a Federal Reserve chair who is more obedient to the White House, more dovish, and friendlier towards cryptocurrency.

This may be a boon for risk assets (including Bitcoin), but it is also a significant test for the U.S. dollar credit system. On the path of politicization of monetary policy, what the market needs to reprice is not only the interest rate path but also the end of the Federal Reserve's century-long independence.

The December 19 decision by the Bank of Japan and the nomination of a new Federal Reserve Chair in early 2026 will jointly define the global liquidity landscape for the next two years. Investors need to prepare: this is not a cyclical adjustment, but a structural change. #美联储 #特朗普 #哈塞特 #加密货币 #成长值抽奖赢iPhone17和周边 $BTC $ETH .