#美联储货币政策走向 Reviewing the Fed's monetary policy over the past decade, it is not difficult to see its close connection with the economic cycle. From the quantitative easing after the 2008 financial crisis, to the interest rate hike cycle that began in 2015, and then to the "pivot" in 2019 and the ultra-low interest rates in 2020, each step has far-reaching effects.

Now, we stand at another critical juncture. The latest forecasts from the two major investment banks, JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley, indicate that the market's expectations for Fed rate cuts are being postponed. This reminds me of the end of 2018, when the market also experienced a similar adjustment in expectations.

History tends to be remarkably similar. Strong employment data is often one of the important indicators of a shift in Fed policy. Now, the resilience of the job market seems to be impacting interest rate cut expectations once again. But we must not forget that economic indicators often lag behind actual conditions.

In the long run, interest rates will eventually fall back to a more neutral level. However, this process may be slower and more tortuous than many expect. For those of us who have experienced multiple cycles, it is crucial to maintain patience and flexibility.

In this time of uncertainty, I recommend focusing on the fundamentals of the real economy rather than overinterpreting every policy signal. After all, true value creation comes from grasping long-term trends, not from speculation on short-term fluctuations.