The performance in December is becoming more and more interesting.

Let me start with the conclusion: Powell probably can't escape this time. The latest data from CME's "FedWatch" tool shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has soared to 87.4%, leaving only a 12.6% chance of no cut. This isn't just a probability; it's essentially a preview.

What's even more interesting is the market's bets for next year. By January next year, the probability of a further 25 basis points cut is 67.5%, and even 23.2% are betting on a direct cut of 50 basis points. Staying put? That probability is less than one-tenth.

What does this mean for us? To put it simply, once the liquidity gates are loosened, where will the funds flow? History never simply repeats itself, but it always strikes the market with a similar rhythm. During each easing cycle, risk assets are the first to get excited. Will cryptocurrency also catch this ride this time?

The suspense now is not whether to "reduce or not", but "how much to reduce" and "how long it can be reduced". Some people have already started to position themselves in advance, while others are still waiting to see how things unfold. What about you? How do you plan to play this game of chess? Share your thoughts in the comments and let's see whose judgment is more accurate.