#加密市场回调 Recently, Bitcoin has experienced a big dump of over 30%. Many people are still looking for various technical reasons, but the root cause is not on the Candlestick Chart. Analysts at Deutsche Bank have put it quite frankly - this thing is not really a safe-haven asset; it's tied to the Nasdaq tech stocks, and once liquidity tightens, it gets dumped first.

Why is this happening? Simply put, three things are going wrong at the same time.

First, the market perception has completely changed. In the past, people trading coins loved to talk about "digital gold" and "hedging against inflation," but if you look at the trends in the past six months, whenever Powell from the Federal Reserve casually mentions that interest rates may not be lowered in December, Bitcoin immediately plummets. What does this indicate? Institutional funds have long treated it as a high-risk technology asset for trading, and there is no longer any hedging attribute. In a high-interest-rate environment, these types of assets are the first to be dumped.

Secondly, the industry itself is not doing well. Regulatory legislation has been dragging on without any progress, and institutional funds that were originally on the sidelines have simply withdrawn after seeing no clear signals. If you look at the ETF fund flows, institutions have experienced continuous net outflows over the past few months, creating persistent selling pressure. Even worse, that early batch of giant whales — when the coin price peaked, they cashed out and left. The bullish forces were already weak, and this dumping directly broke through the support level.

The macro sentiment combined with internal selling pressure means that the volume of sell orders far exceeds the buying capacity, and a crash is just a matter of time.

So don't fantasize about it having an independent market anymore. If you want to enter the market, you need to focus on two things: first, the policy signals from the Federal Reserve—when exactly will they really cut interest rates, don’t just listen to market rumors; second, the progress of industry legislation, such as whether there has been any substantial advancement on the crypto bill in the United States. Until these two indicators improve, any technical rebound could be a trap for more buying.

Once market confidence collapses, no Fibonacci retracement or golden ratio line will work. Preserving principal is much more important than chasing gains, especially in an environment like this; staying alive is the most important thing.