48 hours in focus: The global capital shift among 4 major assets

From November 5-6, the market seems to be playing a "hot potato" game - BTC once dropped below 100k USD and then recovered to 103k (+5%), US stocks surged from "dark times", gold approached 4,000 USD/ounce, and USD reached 100.36.

**Three broken rules of cash flow:**

1️⃣ **USD-Gold no longer in reverse direction** - The inverse correlation of 80% is now easing, both are rising due to safe-haven sentiment.

2️⃣ **Nasdaq-Bitcoin correlation strong 0.72** - Highest in 6 months, crypto is now seen as a high-risk tech asset, stock sell-off = decrease in BTC

3️⃣ **Terrifying shortened holding cycles** - From several weeks down to just a few hours, the "hummingbird" capital is flying chaotically.

**The hidden hand behind:** Fed Milan's statement about continuing to cut interest rates → probability of a rate decrease in December increases to 58% → 62.5% in 24 hours. Additionally, the U.S. government has been shut down for 36 days, geopolitical risk +12% - the entire market is waiting for the next signal.

**Interesting signs:** Bitcoin whales bought a net of 8k BTC when retail investors panicked and sold, but Bitcoin ETFs saw a withdrawal of 488M USD in a day. The reality is a clear division: long-term investors vs short-term investors.

Gold benefits from both safe haven and inflation hedge. Tech stocks are still the "last whirlwind" of the money flow.

**Front:** Bitcoin needs to hold 100k to expect to rise to 120k before the new year. Gold could drop to 4,500 USD. The strong USD risks triggering intervention from Japan.

**Key takeaway:** Don't chase the previous destination, identify the _next_ destination of the cash flow.