#Gate广场圣诞送温暖 Is this round of fall a signal of bull turning to bear, or is it an institution's Whipsaw tactic?

1. Technical Analysis: It appears to be a "bear market certainty," but actually hides a rebound signal.
1. Deadly Breakout: The 50/200 Day MA Death Cross Confirmation This is the most frightening technical signal recently - Bitcoin's 50-day moving average has crossed below the 200-day moving average, forming a "death cross", which is a hallmark pattern when the bear market started in 2022! Even worse, after the price broke below the critical support level of 98,000 USD, it directly sees the range of 74,000-80,000 USD below, with the technical aspect showing a "strong bear market trend".
However, it is worth noting that the death cross can be divided into two types: "bull market pullback type" and "bull to bear type". The year 2022 saw a "true bear market cross" accompanied by a one-size-fits-all regulatory approach and liquidity exhaustion, whereas this time it is a "profit-taking cross" after a total inflow of 61.9 billion USD into ETFs throughout the year, which is fundamentally different.
2. RSI Oversold: The short-term rebound window has opened. The 14-day RSI indicator plummeted from the 70+ overbought range to 35 within a week. Although it did not break below the 30 "extreme oversold line", this rapid decline indicates that the short-term selling pressure is nearly exhausted.
Historical data: In the past 5 times, when the RSI fell from overbought to below 35, 4 times triggered a 10%-15% rebound within 1-2 weeks, only the one in 2022 continued to fall due to the FTX crash.
3. Key Support: $90,000 is the "line of life and death". From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is currently at the "lower edge of the descending channel". $90,000 is the key support of the 200-day moving average and also the ascending trend line since June this year. If it can hold above $90,000 this week, the rebound probability is over 70%; if it effectively falls below, it will trigger real bear market panic, and the next support level will be $74,000.
2. Fundamentals: The three core logics remain intact, making the bear market argument untenable.
1. ETF Capital Outflow: Short-term Withdrawals ≠ Long-term Bearish on Bitcoin. ETFs have seen a net outflow of $1.11 billion for three consecutive weeks, with BlackRock's IBIT and Grayscale's GBTC becoming the "main escape forces". This has been taken by many as "ironclad evidence of institutional flight". However, seasoned investors are here to unveil the truth: the total cumulative inflow for the year is $61.9 billion, and the $1.1 billion outflow over these three weeks only accounts for 1.8%, equivalent to "earning $100 and spending $1.8 on water"; Are institutions "voting with their feet" or "buying high and selling low"? The on-chain data reveals the answer: giants like MicroStrategy have not reduced their holdings, but rather increased their positions by 2,300 BTC in the $95,000 range, clearly indicating a strategy of "buying the dip"; the reasons for the outflow are macroeconomic disturbances (U.S. government shutdown + December rate cut divergences), rather than a change in the logic of crypto assets themselves.
2. Regulation + Stablecoins: A Pill for Comfort vs Warning Light Regulation Pill for Comfort: Federal Reserve Vice Chair Jefferson made a clear statement on November 18 - "We neither encourage nor discourage cryptocurrencies; innovation should be led by the private sector." This is not just empty talk! It is equivalent to the Federal Reserve issuing a "policy get-out-of-jail-free card" to the crypto community, compared to the "regulatory crackdown" of 2022, the current policy environment is absurdly loose; Signals of stablecoin fluctuations: USDC recently staged a "burning + issuance" dual act - Circle burned 82 million coins and then issued 59 million coins. This is a case of funds "shifting for safety" rather than fleeing the crypto market - some people are exchanging USDC for fiat to hedge, while some institutions are using USDC at low points to buy quality assets. The market value of stablecoins remains 74.66 billion USD, with no signs of the "run on the bank" seen in 2022.
3. DeFi: Structural opportunities emerge, not a full bear market. Many people say "DeFi is cooling off," but the data does not lie: the blue-chip protocol Spark's TVL surged by 15% in the past 7 days, surpassing $10 billion, with an annualized income of $27.26 million, becoming the sixth DeFi project with a TVL over $10 billion; although the entire DeFi market's TVL fell from $172.6 billion to $131.5 billion, the TVL of core protocols (Aave, Spark, Uniswap) grew against the trend, indicating that funds are "concentrating towards the top," rather than withdrawing entirely; the Federal Reserve's neutral stance + the EU's MiCA compliance framework coming into effect means DeFi is transitioning from "barbaric growth" to "compliance dividend period," which is an important cornerstone of a bull market, not a feature of a bear market.
3. Short-term bear market correction, long-term bull market remains unchanged.
1. What is it now? — "Panic pullback in a bull market" meets three core characteristics:
Technical analysis: Oversold but not breaking the long-term trend line (200-day moving average);
Fundamentals: Institutional long positions remain unchanged, and the three major logics of regulation, compliance, and halving have not deteriorated;
Capital situation: The outflow of ETFs is a short-term liquidity adjustment, stablecoins have not been redeemed, and the proportion of long-term holding addresses on the chain has increased to 65%.
2. What does a real bear market look like? (Comparison to 2022)
Regulatory one-size-fits-all: Countries completely ban crypto trading;
Liquidity exhaustion: Stablecoin run, USDC depegged;
Institutional full withdrawal: ETF continues to experience large-scale outflows, giants like MicroStrategy are reducing their holdings;
Ecological collapse: DeFi projects collectively explode, TVL slashed and slashed again.

Now these four points are completely irrelevant, on the contrary, compliant projects are increasing, and institutional allocation demand is still there. How can this be called a bear market?