#数字货币市场调整 This round of fall has made many people start to doubt life, but if you look closely at the market data, you will find that several interesting phenomena are happening simultaneously.

Let’s first talk about the Fear and Greed Index. This thing has now fallen below 15. If you look back at the historical records, you will find that every time it falls into this range, there is a high probability of a decent recovery market following—of the past 6 times, 5 have confirmed this pattern. The market has become panicked to the extreme, and the chips that should be exited have basically been cleaned up.

Now let's take a look at the long-to-short ratio. When this number exceeds 3, it means that retail sentiment has become extremely one-sided. Interestingly, after the past 7 occurrences of such extreme situations, the market has welcomed directional corrections. The reason? When most people are on the same boat, it is very easy for the boat to capsize.

Finally, let's look at the performance of the coin holding indicators. The addresses holding coins for the medium to long term have shown almost no fluctuations, and the chip distribution structure remains solid. What does this indicate? It shows that the real long-term funds have not moved at all; the sharp decline is more a chain reaction of short-term leverage and emotions.

Looking at the timeline, the mining ban in 2021, the Luna collapse in 2022, and the explosion of a certain compliant platform in 2023—after each market pitfall, the characteristics of the bottom are strikingly similar: panic spreads, trading volume dries up, and high leverage is cleaned out completely. The current market state is reminiscent of those previous instances.

If you want to find the right timing to enter the market, you can observe these dimensions: the fear index continues to hover at a freezing point, the long-short ratio begins to return to a normal range, and the coin holding data shows an upward turning point. When these three signals resonate, it is often the most cost-effective window period for the risk-reward ratio.

The most chaotic stage of the market may be the key point for the redistribution of chips.