# Bitcoin's 4-Year Boom-Bust Pattern: What History Tells Us About 2026-2027

Look at Bitcoin's price chart over the past decade, and you'll spot something eerie: it's like clockwork. Three massive up years, then boom—one year of brutal correction. Rinse, repeat.

Let's check the receipts:

**The Pattern in Action**

Take 2015-2018. Bitcoin crawled from $314 to $1,019 over three years (1017% gains), then face-planted to $3,200 in 2018—a gut-wrenching 84% drop from the $20k peak. Painful? Yes. Predictable? Also yes.

Fast forward to 2019-2022. Same script, different numbers. Three-year rally from $3,794 → $29,352 → $69k peak, then the knife came down hard. 77% bloodbath, bottoming at $15.5k in 2022.

**Where Are We Now?**

Here's the spicy part: we're in year 3 of the current cycle. Bitcoin opened 2025 at $93.5k and kept printing new ATHs. If history doesn't rhyme—it repeats—we're staring at the peak window right now through mid-2026.

**The Bull Case: 2026 Peak Scenarios**

Historically, the 3rd-year peak is 3-20x the cycle start. This time, start was $93.5k:

- **Conservative case**: $280k (3x multiplier)
- **Euphoria case**: $935k (10x multiplier)

Most likely? Somewhere between $400k-$600k feels realistic given market maturity and institutional adoption.

**The Bear Trap: 2027 Bottom**

Here's where it stings. Post-peak corrections historically shave 75-85% off the highs:

- If peak hits $280k → expect $42k-$70k floor
- If peak hits $935k → expect $140k-$230k floor

That's not a dip. That's a demolition.

**Bottom Line**

Bitcoin is probably making millionaires in 2026, but creating panic sellers in 2027. The cycle is real, the math checks out, and the pattern has held for over a decade. Whether you're chasing the peak or hunting the bottom, know which side of the wave you're riding.