Watch the BTC trend, don't just stare at the Candlestick Chart shouting bullish or bearish. You may predict that it can break through 90,000, or pull back to 40,000, that's fine—but it must be based on reason and evidence, you can't just speak without justification.

To be honest, the market now is nothing like it was a few years ago. Back then, Bitcoin was still a niche thing, and the pool was shallow; a few tens of millions of dollars could stir up a huge wave. And now? The market has matured, and to see a big movement, there needs to be a real catalyst.

What is a true catalyst? The hardest core is the central bank's policy - when the Federal Reserve raises interest rates and reduces its balance sheet, liquidity is drained, and the market naturally stagnates; conversely, when interest rates are lowered and liquidity is increased, the bull market engine will roar. This is a hard variable that determines the big direction.

How can we grasp short-term fluctuations during a relatively stable phase of the big trend? At this point, we need to pay attention to those "secondary variables." Policy vacuum periods, geopolitical friction, platform explosions, and whale sell-offs... These factors are not fatal when considered individually, but if they come together, the short-term rhythm can easily be skewed.

Just flipping through last year's market can find examples. In August last year, there was a problem with banks in Japan that triggered a chain reaction, and the situation suddenly escalated between Russia and Ukraine. Just when the Federal Reserve's monthly meeting was suspended that month—several unfortunate events piled up, and the market stagnated for almost two months. March to April this year had a similar formula: the trade war was lively, the Middle East was restless, and then came the policy observation period, leading to another wave of price adjustments.

It is worth noting that it is now November again, and the policy level has entered a window period. Recently, liquidity