Bitcoin has fallen from its peak of $125,000 to below $100,000 this year. Behind this roller coaster market trend lies more than just Cryptocurrency Trading. As the big brother holding 57.29% of the global crypto market share, BTC has now been completely pulled into the game rules of TradFi—whatever happens to the monetary policy, it reacts accordingly.

Ultimately, interest rates are the director of this play. The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points in September, while inflation stabilized at 2.8%. This combination directly sent BTC to $117,000. Now, the market bets that there will be another rate cut in December, with a probability exceeding 60%. It is worth noting that the global liquidity pool has already risen to $176.2 trillion. As long as the liquidity continues to flow, there is room for imagination for Bitcoin, an asset that does not yield interest.

But don't celebrate too early. What if inflation rebounds or employment data comes in unexpectedly high, and interest rate cuts are off the table? The panic caused by the cooling expectations in November is still fresh in our minds, and it's hard to say whether the $93,000 support line can hold.

Complicating matters is the geopolitical card. Previously, some international frictions could create some safe-haven demand for BTC, but now the volatility in the traditional market is too fierce, and its "digital gold" persona is somewhat shaky. In simple terms, Bitcoin now has to receive the red envelope of loose monetary policy with its left hand while guarding against black swan attacks with its right hand, making its trend much harder to predict than before.